IPL and IDL added to nationwide rankings
Australian football analytics website The Pecking Order (TPO) released its latest update this morning which added 168 clubs to their nationwide rankings — taking the total number to 362. The update includes the 24 clubs competing in the top two tiers of Illawarra football — the Illawarra Premier League and District League.
The TPO rankings are based off a robust algorithm which takes into consideration approximately 30,000 matches across various leagues and the FFA Cup with some of the data being used spanning back 40 years. The initial Illawarra update incorporates records going back to 2013 but TPO plans to delve further back in the future.
Premier League leaders Bulli — who have finished inside the top two for the past six seasons — are the highest ranked club of the 168 additions. They sit in 76th which is 40 places higher than the next best Illawarra club in Wollongong Olympic (apart from the Wollongong Wolves who are 43rd). The three Premier League clubs rounding out the top five are Albion Park White Eagles (151st), Port Kembla (162nd) and Wollongong United (173rd) — three examples of clubs who have won Grand Finals in the last six years but have fallen outside the top five as well.
The lowest ranked Premier League outfit are South Coast United in 306th — the Ian McLennan Park based club have just one finals appearance to their name since 2013. There are six District League clubs ranked above United, the highest of which is perennial finals contenders Warilla Wanderers who are 208th which puts them above five top-flight sides. The lowest District League side is Unanderra Hearts (previously Wests Illawarra) who are 348th — two places behind University of Wollongong.
The biggest movers up the rankings in 2018, based on TPO score is District League leaders Bellambi who are currently 286th with a score of 1305.8 which is a 219 point increase on their preseason score which would have put them one place below the Hearts. Coniston — while only having a 158 point increase — are the biggest movers up in terms of position with their 12 wins from 13 matches this campaign pushing them up 64 places. On the other hand, Berkeley have lost 136 points this season which has seen them drop 47 places, the only club with a worse positional drop is Warilla whose middling start to the season saw them lose 103 points and drop 52 places.
As mentioned, NPL 1 club Wollongong Wolves are the highest ranked club in the region. They were a part of original rankings and their best ranking since 2013 is 24th which they achieved in March this year. The NSW NPL 3 and State League was also added in in the latest rankings with the newly formed South Coast Flame coming in at 350th between Tweed United (Gold Coast PL) and Gazy Auburn (NSW SL).
TPO claim the rankings are “self-correcting” which suggests the more data which goes into the algorithm the more credible it will become. They acknowledge it isn’t perfect, owever, I believe given the nature of the Australian footballing pyramid, it may be the closest to a perfect ranking system that we will ever get.
Regardless, it is certainly a fantastic topic for conversation and I will be fortunate enough to have Jake Shorter — one-half of the TPO brothers — as a guest on next week’s FSC Weekly.
